Doggedly searching for the crux of the biscuit.
Kos links to results from the averages of all 2006 Gallup polling that show party ID is surging toward the Democrats. The overall 34D-30R-34I split is the Democrats' biggest national advantage since Clinton was in office. Taking independent leaners into account, Dem/lean Dem get 50%, GOP/lean GOP is at 40%. That's the largest gap for either party since leaners began being included in 1991 and the first time either party has hit 50%. But those aren't the most interesting numbers to me; the state-by-state party IDs are. A list of the 48 continental states, ranked from most Democratic to least, is behind the cut.
A few surprising notes: Missouri at #11 and Kentucky at #17 of the most heavily Democratic states. North Carolina and Florida are tied with California. And GOP (w/ leaners) only holds any lead at all in Mississippi, South Dakota, South Carolina, Texas, Nebraska, Idaho, and Utah.
D/Lean D Ind. R/Lean R
RI 66 8 26
VT 64 9 27
MA 63 8 29
CT 61 11 29
AR 60 6 34
ME 58 10 32
NY 58 8 34
WV 58 8 34
MD 58 7 35
NH 55 12 33
MO 55 8 37
WA 54 10 36
MI 52 11 37
OH 53 8 39
NJ 52 10 38
IL 52 9 39
KY 54 6 41
NM 54 5 41
MN 53 6 41
CA 51 8 40
FL 51 9 40
IA 51 10 40
NC 52 7 41
OR 49 12 39
VA 51 8 41
NV 48 12 40
PA 50 9 42
IN 49 10 42
OK 50 7 43
AZ 50 6 44
WI 49 9 42
MT 47 11 42
GA 48 8 44
KS 48 8 44
AL 49 5 46
LA 47 10 44
TN 47 9 44
CO 47 7 46
MS 44 7 49
SD 41 11 48
SC 44 6 50
TX 42 8 50
NE 37 9 55
ID 35 11 54
UT 33 6 62
my predicition... the republicans will become like the Old Right again, isolationist, anti-war, anti-immigration, and pro-tariff
things will end up like the politics of the 20s and 30s again.
Posted by: Jon at February 1, 2007 08:57 AMNew Hampshire at #10 suprises me. That state went for Bush in 2000.
Posted by: Spike at February 1, 2007 11:41 PM