Doggedly searching for the crux of the biscuit.
Powerline, yesterday:
I wrote in June that based on the data at that time, the murder rate in Iraq outside of Baghdad is about the same as American cities like Chicago, Philadelphia and Milwaukee. With the current numbers, it looks like that would still be true. A consensus seems to have developed that Iraq is a disaster because of out-of-control sectarian violence. That consensus is driving proposals to change our policy in Iraq, perhaps in the direction of a pull-out that could lead to truly cataclysmic violence. So I think it makes sense to step back and get a more realistic picture of the level of what is happening in Iraq: violent? Yes. A disaster comparable to a civil war? No.
His numbers are nonsense, of course, if for no other reason that deaths outside of Baghdad are vastly more likely to go unreported. And I suppose it is helpful to exclude Baghdad, where a quarter of the population lives, where US and Iraqi government forces have the strongest presence, and where you nonetheless get stories like this:
The death toll from a series of car bombs in a Shia militia stronghold in Baghdad on Thursday has risen to 115, an Interior Ministry source said. A further 125 people were wounded in three apparently coordinated car bombs and a mortar blast in different parts of the Sadr City neighbourhood. A series of car bombs exploded in a Shia militia stronghold in Baghdad on Thursday and gunmen mounted an audacious daylight raid on a Shia-run government ministry.
Three apparently coordinated car bombs and a mortar blast in different parts of Sadr City neighbourhood destroyed whole streets, leaving bloodied remains amid mangled vehicle wrecks in one the worst bomb attacks in the capital this month.
Five people were wounded at the Health Ministry, about 5 km (3 miles) from Sadr City, an Interior Ministry source said, when about 30 guerrillas fired mortars, rocket-propelled grenades and machineguns into the compound in one of the biggest public shows of force by militants in the city since the 2003 US invasion.
A United Nations report released on Wednesday said Iraq's civilian death toll hit a high in October of 120 a day.
Comparable to a civil war? Hmm.
Why can't guys like this just admit they were wrong about what would happen in Iraq? Articles like this, downplaying the level of violence there, are just pathetic.
Posted by: Pug at November 23, 2006 12:23 PMStop and think about Powerline's numbers: 100+ murders a day in Baghdad, a city about the size of Chicago. Powerline is comparing annual murders in US cities with monthly murders in Baghdad.
Powerline did the same thing last summer, so it's unlikely to be an honest mistake. In other words, he is trying to fool his readers.
Laney blogs at Apophenia
Hmm...first befriending the Shia, then standing by while our "traditional" enemies, the Sunni Baathists and the Arab jihadists blow up whole crowds of Shiites.
Now that Iran has been placed next on the hit list, there are whispers of changing sides altogether on the side of the Sunnis.
Already, there have been numerous skirmishes between US forces and Muqtada al Sadr's guys, the poor Shiite gangster guy of Baghdad.
Grand Ayatollah Al Sistani, who once asked the Iraqi people to accept the US invasion as temporary liberators, and then called for direct elections over the caucus system, now remains silent.
That's because everybody in Iraq hates the US and wants us out.
Everybody.
Everybody except maybe Iran's secret agent, Akmed Chalabi.
What a pickle "we're" in. No allies, and a different set of enemies every week.
Posted by: Jon at November 24, 2006 10:03 AMJon, I see that like me, you`ve been hating America for a long time - but I didn`t see you here at Apo`s until recently. Where were you posting before you came back here - or was I simply not paying attention?
BTW, I wonder if you`ve seen these analyses on Iraq and our military by Robert Nordhaus?
http://nordhaus.econ.yale.edu/military_010405.pdf
http://nordhaus.econ.yale.edu/AAAS_War_Iraq_2.pdf
The sooner we stop the meter on this $150 million per day madness, the better.
Posted by: SlouchingTom at November 24, 2006 09:46 PMIf you look at the murder statistics from Minnesota, New Hampshire, Michigan, or Rhode Island for 1864, you'll see that there was no American Civil War either. Even in Maryland, except for just a day or two of violence -- mostly limited to the Sharpsburg area -- there was surprisingly little 'excess death' from 1861 through 1865. The people who say there was an American Civil War are merely trying to justify continued oppression of the American South.
Posted by: CharleyCarp at November 25, 2006 08:43 AMTom-
Dude I love America, the land of private property rights and individual liberty.
What I hate are all the attempts to turn this country I love into a police state in a perpetual state of war.
Posted by: Jon at November 25, 2006 08:50 AM