Just for speculation's sake, let's say Kerry rolls to the nomination and picks Edwards as his running mate. And let's say the naysayers are correct and Bush wins by painting Kerry as a smug Northeastern elitist hippie Satanist half-Jewish gay treehugger. Or a liberal.
Where does that leave the various Democrats? First, it goes without saying that the recriminations and fingerpointing over who lost the presidency will be deafening. But Kerry returns to the Senate, of course, where he keeps the seat until he decides he is sick of it. Kucinich and Sharpton go right back to being Kucinich and Sharpton.
Edwards would seem to be set up to be a serious contender, perhaps even the presumptive frontrunner, in 2008. But four years is a long time to keep your name in the news when you're in the minority party and don't even hold an office. Elizabeth Dole's Senate seat doesn't come up until 2008, the other Senate seat in 2010, and Mike Easley (D) will be just starting his second term as governor of North Carolina. I can't imagine you go back to doing case law after running for president. My best guess is he probably gets a lecturing position at a major university or goes to work for one of the thinktanks.
Howard Dean will never be president of the United States. That's no dishonor to him - only 43 have done it in over two centuries and many were far less qualified or worthy men than Dr. Dean. Just as Dick Gephardt and Bob Dole were decent, honorable, and dedicated public servants but weren't ever going to be president, so too Dean. But he clearly has a future. He has often been tossed around as a potential DNC chair, though after the campaign shakeup, that might not be as obvious to onlookers any longer. Jim Jeffords comes up for election in '06, though. He is seventy years old and after leaving the GOP only to see the Democrats he caucused with assume minority party status, he's likely not having much fun any longer. I'd think that a tempting target for Dean if he wants it, running as a Democrat against the GOP nominee and the independent incumbent.
Clark? Who knows. He's not eligible to be Secretary of Defense for any administration until 2010, because the 1947 National Security Act requires 10 years of retirement from duty before assuming civilian command. I guess he hits the speaking circuit and does analysis for CNN or somebody. He'll be making some impressive money over the next few years. He probably runs again in 2008; something tells me the people who believe he is Bill and Hillary's proxy don't quite see the whole picture.
And the right wing's favorite bugaboo, Hillary Clinton. Does she really want to run for president? After what she went through as First Lady, I can't imagine why she would, but hey, some people like getting tied up and beaten, so who am I to judge? I don't think she would sweep to the nomination nearly as easily as some of the theoretical polls have shown, but she would certainly be formidable in a primary (though, I think, disastrous in a general election). The Clintons have personal, regional, and style ties with both Edwards and Clark and a huge fundraising network. The Gore-Dean-MoveOn wing has shown it can exert political muscle and will claim Bush won because their approach wasn't employed. And, of course, there will be new credible faces emerging during the next couple of years that nobody has really considered yet.
So what if? What do you think?
TrackBackah, the counterfactual thread of politics! Well, assuming the dems lose in 2004 (which actually is highly unlikely), then we will not see Kerry, Dean, Sharpton, or Lieberman, raise a campaign again but for different reasons, each. What we would likely see (IMHO of course)is another Kucinich campaign, another Clark bid, and of course the 800 1b gorilla of dem politics, Hillary. Edwards? He is a mystery.
Such is my untutored view.
Posted by: michael the wanderer at January 30, 2004 09:31 PM