January 27, 2004

Add 'em up

Posted by apostropher

CNN is is projecting that New Hampshire's 22 delegates will be divided 14 13 for Kerry and 8 9 for Dean. If this holds, then the new count will be Kerry 32 31, Edwards 18, Dean 15 16. Several hundred more will be doled out next Tuesday, and several hundred more the following week. We can talk about momentum - and it does seem to matter to a degree - but it's still effectively a three-way tie with Clark in easy striking range.

By the way, CNN.com has delegate estimates showing Dean with over 100, but those count superdelegates who had expressed a preference. Those will be very fluid until a clear leader emerges and shouldn't be taken seriously. Those estimates show Kucinich and Sharpton with a couple each as well, so, you know...

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Comments
1

Good night for Kerry. A bit better than expectations. Mo.
Dean hurts coming in so far behind in his back yard, but do not underestimate the network fervor, the cash, and the fact that he has a nationwide operation.
13% sucks for Clark, but: (1) He positioned himself to take on Dean in NH (coming out of IA) and (2) I can think of very few places that play less to his strengths or more to Dean's and Kerry's. But sheesh, his stump presence has got to get better. He's not a practiced politician and it shows, painfully.
Edwards: SC or bust. Although a close second there coupled with a few surprise wins elsewhere on the 3d would be survivable. Next Tues plays FAR more into Edwards' and, to a slightly lesser extent, Clark's hands. I've read Edwards' "specifics" on issues and I'm not all that particularly impressed; what is amazing to me is his politicking ability. Man! He can work a crowd.

Go home, Holy Joe.

My take on the last 8 days?...
Support is soft. Very, very soft.

Posted by: froz gobo at January 27, 2004 11:53 PM
2

What's impressive about Edwards' "specifics" is that he wrote them, understands them, can explain them, and believes in them. Much is made of his charisma and for good reason, but he's second to no one on issues of policy. Remember when he was being criticized by the media as "wonkish"? He's got the positions and the skills to articulate them, and there's no way that W. is going to be able to shut him up in a debate by pointing his finger and saying something about "fuzzy math." Don't get me started on that one.

Posted by: shoveldog at January 28, 2004 01:40 PM
3

Fuzzy math... Christ. I am *so* not looking forward to another campaign of the reporters feeling sorry for the guy and thus not taking him to task for the dumbest damn statements.

Anyhoo - I went back and re-read the 60-pager this evening after my kid went to bed and while it's refreshing (what wouldn't be after what's passed as "policy" for the last 3 years), it still strikes me as campaign talking points that are good, but hardly in a league of their own.

Now part of that is the issue that interests me most: sustainability, in the form of conservation and environmental protection. Edwards tosses up the standard eco-platitutdes, including some notable proposals about large corporate farms and air and water quality. He is also dead-on regarding a much-overlooked environmental topic: how our energy problems can be partly addressed by targeting fuel value in our waste.

But climate change gets two brief, off-hand references in his whole document and he's barely in the middle of the pack when it comes to having conservation a high priority in his agenda. (Oddly enough, Liebermann, who I would hold my nose to vote for, might just be at the front on this.)

Don't get me wrong: Edwards still might get my endorsement and Hell, I might even campaign for the guy but it will be because I think he can win and I think he's smart enough to put people in his administration who will seriously address the issue that I feel is hands-down the most important one our Country and our species faces. Just undoing W's damage will be an Herculean task.

Thanks for reminding me to refresh my memory with his proposals, though.

Posted by: froz gobo at January 28, 2004 09:25 PM