Corps Voters

Benjamin Wallace-Wells has an interesting article in the latest Washington Monthly about the new volatility in the military vote. The skinny: while the Bush administration is alienating the military a little more every day, the Democrats are facing an uphill battle at translating that alienation into Democratic votes. This may foreshadow more of a shift among factions within the Republican Party - away from the neo-cons and toward the isolationist and multilateralist wings - than a move toward the Democratic Party. Rumsfeld's unpopularity among the military rank and file is legendary, and that doubtlessly has begun to extend to Cheney, Wolfowitz, and the rest of the unilateralist posse.

How that plays out with Bush facing no primary opponents is anybody's guess, but my gut feeling tells me that a Clark candidacy could peel off a significant and perhaps decisive number of votes. I suspect we may yet see Cheney dumped overboard (via a resignation for "health reasons") in favor of Powell or Giuliani for the GOP 2004 ticket. Karl Rove may be hubristic and malevolent, but he's no dummy and is certainly able to read these tea leaves.